Hotel Bombing quick analysis

I think the bombing was conducted by the faction of Taliban i.e. Baitullah Massud type who want the army to stop the attacks or settle the score. I think before we jump onto the 'who benifit the most from this' I would like to point that the Talibans are no longer one body and there are too many grievances against the PK state and there are various movers and shakers. The stake holders at strategic level include NATO, India (revenge of Kabul bombing) , Afghanistan and US. At tactical level is anyone who can take the shot.

 

The war between PK army Taliban and US entered new phase. This phase i.e. post Musharraf era where Zardari is fully in US pockets and Kiani is left to bring the old balance back where the army is respected and national interest is protected along with satisfying US demands to do more. Under Musharraf the understanding was that whenever there is reliable intelligence you can use drones and they will be coordinated with ISI however at too many times US felt that intelligence is leaked. After Musharraf and even around the time of Feb elections there were reports calling for US to increase the pressure on the new Govt so they don't step out of line with US policy on WOT. With Zardari it seems the policy is protected.

 

The pressure applied on Pakistan in the post Musharraf era is about consistent pressure to do more. This means that do the air strikes with a ground strikes as options keeping Pakistan on their toes in terms of delivering results on the ground i.e. if you do not act then we will come in.

 

After Abraham Lincoln meeting Kiyani and his cohort were conveyed that US will launch ground offences if there is reliable intelligence. I think it was mutely accepted at that time but when back in Pakistan the strategy was to counter this by creating public opinion against US attack on PK sovereignty –clear when both Kiani and civilian leadership condemned attacks

 

National interest as far as Army is concerned is to have a minimum deterrence against India in the form of pro PK Taliban. Talibans now divided between those who are being used by US for their goal, those Pakistan want to protect and those with Alqaeda ideology.

 

The new strategy drawn by pentagon and DOD includes Afghanistan&Pakistan as the problem is not viewed in isolation anymore.

 

some important articles to read

 

According to BBC Most of the dead were Pakistani. The Czech ambassador was among at least four foreigners killed, and the death toll is expected to rise. US, German and Vietnamese citizens were also killed in the blast, which injured at least a dozen foreign nationals. Four Britons and an unknown number of Saudi, German, Moroccan, Afghan and US citizens, were among those hurt.

Where the blast happened the residences of the president, prime minister and chief justice, as well as the parliament, supreme court, TV stations, state radio and almost all ministries are all located nearby

At the time of the bombing most of the country's top civil and military leaders (including President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, and army chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani) were attending a gathering in Prime Minister House, located about half a mile from the hotel

This attack provided an opportunity for PK govt/army to crackdown hard on the militants - as illustrated by the statement made by zardari soon after the bombings "This is an epidemic, a cancer in Pakistan which we will root out," he said. "We will not be afraid of these cowards." this will now allow army to use more lethal force which will be backed by US military. Please note US military observers arrived in Pakistan on the day of the blasts. the public opinion in the coming days will be build to work more closely with US to eradicate this 'evil'.

Geo reported that

Pakistan's National Assembly Speaker Fehmida Mirza was hosting an Iftar dinner reception in honor of President Asif Ali Zardari at the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, Pakistan, when the hotel was bombed Sept. 20, Pakistani Daily The News reported. Zardari reportedly was not at the dinner, but the report said other important figures were present, without giving names. That some 100 people may have been killed in the attack. There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

Bush also made a statement saying it is a reminder that it is PK war

News reported there was also a secret US Army presence in the hotel

ISLAMABAD: Was there a top secret and mysterious operation of the US Marines going on inside the Marriott when it was attacked on Saturday evening? No one will confirm it but circumstantial evidence is in abundance.

Witnessed by many, including a PPP MNA and his friends, a US embassy truckload of steel boxes was unloaded and shifted inside the Marriott Hotel on the same night when Admiral Mike Mullen met Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and others in Islamabad.

Both the main gates (the entrance and the exit) of the hotel were closed while no one except the US Marines were either allowed to go near the truck or get the steel boxes unloaded or shift them inside the hotel. These steel boxes were not passed through the scanners installed at the entrance of the hotel lobby and were reportedly shifted to the fourth and fifth floors of the Marriott.

Conclusion
The obvious beneficiaries is US as this bombing is going to provide pretext to PK army to fight the WOT as their war - This bombing is from AQ inspired Taliban but the indirect link can go back to either India or US easily as US need this to create public opinion for the war and India to settle score and/or force Pakistan to change their views regarding Afghanistan and Indian presence.