When we study wars one of the most effective weapons to fight huge and powerful armies is guerilla warfare. Over the centuries many fights are won using this strategy and the most recent examples of Soviet Union in Afghanistan and United states in Vietnam, when smaller forces with inferior weaponry able to crush the occupying forces are testimony to this.
United States learning lessons from Vietnam failure, able to maintain her hegemony in Iraq because of one clear strategy. US learnt that they failed to defeat the guerilla warfare in Vietnam because of the local support these guerillas enjoyed. With local support they were able to hide, get supplies and most of all get more people to join their cause.
When the Iraq war started and US presence was seen as occupation many people joined the resistance movement. For US war efforts this was the disaster, having no post war strategy US applied lethal counter guerilla strategy. This strategy involved isolating resistance fighters – physically, politically and morally. This is when US started bombing and killing Iraqis and started blaming them on the resistance fighters. A bomb planted in a busy market place where ordinary civilians are present will create kind of anger which if directed towards the guerillas will remove the moral support they thrive on. This strategy worked to an extent, where today local tribal chiefs are working with the US to remove the resistance. Whether this strategy will continue to work in future is still to be seen.
Coming back to Pakistan and the occupation of Afghanistan. The Pushtoons who live on the western border of Pakistan never saw the Durand line as real borders. British never able to occupy this part of the region and they successfully defeated the Soviets with US weapons. These tribes posed serious threats to US foreign policy objective in Afghanistan. Hamid Karzai government had no control outside Kabul and when the Afghan resistance movement started they were able to find sanctuary and weapons in vast amount on Pakistan western borders. The local tribes never saw them as aliens as they spoke the same language and have similar culture. Fighting the occupying force also seen as a moral cause, but this is not all, the problem gets bigger when the population of Pakistan also saw US presence in Afghanistan as occupation and they extended their moral support to Afghan resistance forces. (See USIP and World Public Opinion survey 2008)
The problem Pakistan faces is real i.e. Pushtoon fighters who are named as 'local militant Talibans' but to treat this problem Pakistan need to look at the root causes rather than applying cut and paste solutions from US which benefits US foreign policy objectives.
This problem didn't exist before the WOT. Pakistan policy to go after its own population in Waziristan and Bluchistan on the behest of United States is turning the population against Islamabad. US seeing the long term implication of occupation knew very well that they need to make this war Pakistan's war.
Lessons learnt from Iraq and Afghanistan are now to be applied on Pakistan. The year is 2006-2007. Bombing campaign in Pakistan, Talibans taking responsibilities and ordinary civilians are casualties. US can now present to the Pakistani establishment that this is not US war but 'our war', terrorism is a common enemy to both the countries and fighting with US is in Pakistan's interest. As the bombing continues, the more public opinion is going to turn against the resistance in Afghanistan and more it will be look like a Pakistani problem.
The year now is 2008 U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Jan. 24 that the United States is "ready, willing and able" to conduct joint counter-resistance combat operations with Pakistani troops in northwestern Pakistan if Islamabad agrees to such an arrangement. While U.S. military and intelligence forces have been running limited ground and air operations on Pakistani soil, this is the first time a very public move from covert to overt military operations is voiced, this could exacerbate the tensions within Pakistan where overwhelmingly Pakistanis still view US as imperialist, occupying force in Afghanistan.
Speaking at a Pentagon press conference with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Michael Mullen, Gates said that, while Pakistan reserves the right to accept or decline the U.S. offer, Washington will "continue the dialog" on the matter. Gates added that the United States would send a very small contingent of troops and expressed surprise that the Pakistanis have not "fully thought through" how they want to deal with the resistance fighters. Mullen said that the security situation in Pakistan is changing, and that Islamabad's decision on dealing with it "is a really important question for all of us."
These remarks — the most direct yet from Washington about its willingness to have U.S. forces operating on Pakistani soil — came two days after Adm. William Fallon, head of the U.S. Central Command, flew to Islamabad to meet with Pakistan's new army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani.
US is running covert military operations in Pakistan with the full knowledge of Musharraf administration as early as late 2003 and early 2004. But the issue of the United States sending troops into Pakistan has only gained traction in the global media over the past year or so. In the last several months, it has become the subject of discussion within Pakistan as well, a development that has somewhat removed the shock regarding the subject from the Pakistani national psyche. That said, the move from limited covert operations to a broader and overt U.S. military role (which is what Gates and others are laying the groundwork for with these latest statements) is bound to exacerbate the situation in the country.
It is also important to note the recent meeting between Musharraf and top two U.S. intelligence officials, who made a secret visit to Pakistan in early January to seek permission from President Pervez Musharraf for greater involvement of American forces in Pakistan. This secret visit by CIA Director Michael Hayden and Mike McConnell, director of national intelligence is part of the effort on how to make these operations accepted to Pakistani people. Michael Hayden also said last week that he believed terror networks directed by Mr. Mehsud were responsible for the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. The New York Times also quoted one senior official as saying the purpose of the mission "was to convince Musharraf that time is ticking away" and that increased attacks on Pakistan would ultimately undermine his hold on power.
But the reality is that Islamabad can only go so far in refusing Washington, and many within the government and the country believe they need U.S. assistance to deal with the resistance fighters. This is where US need to present the Afghan resistance movement as Pakistani problem. In the coming months it won't be surprising if there are more 'suicide bombings' in Pakistan to which some murky video from Taliban will take responsibility. A report released this month by the Pak Institute for Peace Studies, a nongovernmental research center based in Lahore, said suicide bombings in Pakistan had soared to 60 last year from 6 in 2006.
More coordination, training and even joint operations with Pakistani forces could be in the works. It remains to be seen what future operations might look like; possibilities include everything from small teams of U.S. Special Forces operating alongside larger Pakistani paramilitary units or Pakistani interpreters and commanders accompanying U.S. units to large blocking maneuvers by Pakistani forces to facilitate a major U.S. raid.
Ultimately, the Pentagon is clearing the way for larger-scale military operations (though they probably will not get too big) and more overt and heavier use of U.S. airpower. How the political arrangement — much less the situation on the ground — will play out remains to be seen. But any new geographic limit for operations Islamabad might arrange with Washington will not stop U.S. forces from going after targets any more than the Pakistani border has stopped them. Should the resistance fighters fleeing 'counterinsurgency' operations seek shelter deeper in Pakistan to reflect a hypothetical new limit on U.S. operations, U.S. forces will move to follow. And because the resistance fighters' sphere of operations is not limited to FATA but stretches into the adjoining Pashtun areas in the North-West Frontier Province and Balochistan, military operations could extend into those regions as well.
After such a scenario, the cross-border problems would be pushed back into Pakistan. At the end of any operation, after a Taliban or resistance fighters' stronghold was smashed, U.S. forces likely would be found dusting off and flying back to Afghanistan (as after Soviet war), leaving the Pakistanis to clean up and stabilize a situation complicated by public backlash and an assertive media.
United States foreign policy objective for Pakistan is to weaken the Army and destroy Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. This requires a justification such as US created using Afghan jihadist strategy. In any case Pakistani leadership needs to ask themselves, how seeing the above scenarios, it is in Pakistani interest to be part of US War on Terror. In this war Pakistan has lost the influence once she enjoyed deep into Eurasian region through Afghanistan. How many Pakistani soldiers and civilians have died during this war? How many Pakistanis are kidnapped and sent around the world to secret CIA jails.
Today Pakistan is ethnically divided, CIA and FBI operatives are roaming freely, US bases are in Pakistan and its sovereignty is in danger and the army is entrenched in Pakistan's politics and economy.
To come out of the present mess Pakistani leadership need to consider the following points as solution. Expel US/NATO from the region by stop supporting US war on terror. Ideologically and politically bind Pakistanis using Islam. Create union with Afghanistan and use the resistance fighters' elements on the western borders of Pakistan to western borders of Afghanistan. Work to place a civilian government in Pakistan which allows Military to go back in the barracks using the model of Caliphate. This civilian government in turn will allow Pakistan to have independent foreign policy, independent judiciary, an economic system which will destroy feudalism, a social system which will remove fahashee which is rampant, and political system which guarantees accountability and representative rule.
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